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A seasonal-scale climatological analysis correlating spring tornadic activity with antecedent fall–winter drought in the southeastern United States

Marshall Shepherd1, Dev Niyogi2 and Thomas L Mote1

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Using rain gauge and satellite-based rainfall climatologies and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1952–2007), this study found a statistically significant tendency for fall–winter drought conditions to be correlated with below-normal tornado days the following spring in north Georgia (i.e. 93% of the years) and other regions of the Southeast. Non-drought years had nearly twice as many tornado days in the study area as drought years and were also five to six times more likely to have multiple tornado days. Individual tornadic events are largely a function of the convective-mesoscale thermodynamic and dynamic environments, thus the study does not attempt to overstate predictability. Yet, the results may provide seasonal guidance in an analogous manner to the well known Sahelian rainfall and Cape Verde hurricane activity relationships.


 
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PACS

92.60.Ry Climatology

92.60.hk Convection, turbulence, and diffusion

92.60.Qx Storms

92.40.De Drought

93.30.Hf North America

92.60.Jq Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)

Subjects

Environmental and Earth science

Dates

Issue 2 (April-June 2009)

Received 10 February 2009, accepted for publication 16 June 2009

Published 24 June 2009



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