M O'Hare et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 024001 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024001
M O'Hare1, R J Plevin2, J I Martin3, A D Jones2, A Kendall4 and E Hopson3
Show affiliationsThe global warming intensities of crop-based biofuels and fossil fuels differ not only in amount but also in their discharge patterns over time. Early discharges, for example, from market-mediated land use change, will have created more global warming by any time in the future than later discharges, owing to the slow decay of atmospheric CO2. A spreadsheet model of this process, BTIME, captures this important time pattern effect using the Bern CO2 decay model to allow fuels to be compared for policy decisions on the basis of their real warming effects with a variety of user-supplied parameter values. The model also allows economic discounting of climate effects extended far into the future. Compared to approaches that simply sum greenhouse gas emissions over time, recognizing the physics of atmospheric CO2 decay significantly increases the deficit relative to fossil fuel of any biofuel causing land use change.
Issue 2 (April-June 2009)
Received 11 February 2009, accepted for publication 30 March 2009
Published 7 April 2009
M O'Hare et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 024001
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