Table of contents

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Studies suggest that trillions of microplastic particles are floating on the surface of the global oceans and that the total amount of plastic waste entering the ocean will increase by an order of magnitude by 2025. As such, this ever-increasing problem demands immediate mitigation and reduction. Diverse solutions have been proposed, ranging from source reduction to ocean-based cleanup. These solutions are most effective when guided by scientific evidence. A study published in  Environmental Research Letters (Sherman and van Sebille 2016 Environ. Res. Lett.11 014006) took a closer look at the potential effectiveness of ocean-based cleanup. They conclude that it will be most cost-effective and ecologically beneficial if clean-up efforts focus on the flux of microplastics from the coasts rather than in the center of the oceans where plastic accumulates in so called 'garbage patches'. If followed, this example may become one of a series of examples where science has informed a solution to the complex problem of plastic pollution.

Background. In the northern hemisphere, ticks of the Ixodidae family are vectors of diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, Rocky Mountain spotted fever and tick-borne encephalitis. Most of these ticks are generalists and have a three-host life cycle for which they are dependent on three different hosts for their blood meal. Finding out which host species contribute most in maintaining ticks and the pathogens they transmit, is imperative in understanding the drivers behind the dynamics of a disease.

Methods. We performed a systematic review to identify the most important vertebrate host species for Ixodes ricinus and Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. as a well-studied model system for tick-borne diseases. We analyzed data from 66 publications and quantified the relative contribution for 15 host species.

Review results. We found a positive correlation between host body mass and tick burdens for the different stages of I. ricinus. We show that nymphal burdens of host species are positively correlated with infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi s.l., which is again positively correlated with the realized reservoir competence of a host species for B. burgdorferi s.l. Our quantification method suggests that only a few host species, which are amongst the most widespread species in the environment (rodents, thrushes and deer), feed the majority of I. ricinus individuals and that rodents infect the majority of I. ricinus larvae with B. burgdorferi s.l.

Discussion. We argue that small mammal-transmitted Borrelia spp. are maintained due to the high density of their reservoir hosts, while bird-transmitted Borrelia spp. are maintained due to the high infection prevalence of their reservoir hosts. Our findings suggest that Ixodes ricinus and Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. populations are maintained by a few widespread host species. The increase in distribution and abundance of these species, could be the cause for the increase in Lyme borreliosis incidence in Europe in recent decades.

The fuel economy of gasoline vehicles will increase to meet 2025 corporate average fuel economy standards (CAFE). However, dedicated compressed natural gas (CNG) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) already exceed future CAFE fuel economy targets because only 15% of non-petroleum energy use is accounted for when determining compliance. This study aims to inform stakeholders about the potential impact of CAFE on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, should non-petroleum fuel vehicles displace increasingly fuel efficient petroleum vehicles. The well-to-wheel GHG emissions of a set of hypothetical model year 2025 light-duty vehicles are estimated. A reference gasoline vehicle is designed to meet the 2025 fuel economy target within CAFE, and is compared to a set of dedicated CNG vehicles and BEVs with different fuel economy ratings, but all vehicles meet or exceed the fuel economy target due to the policy's dedicated non-petroleum fuel vehicle incentives. Ownership costs and BEV driving ranges are estimated to provide context, as these can influence automaker and consumer decisions. The results show that CNG vehicles that have lower ownership costs than gasoline vehicles and BEVs with long distance driving ranges can exceed the 2025 CAFE fuel economy target. However, this could lead to lower efficiency CNG vehicles and heavier BEVs that have higher well-to-wheel GHG emissions than gasoline vehicles on a per km basis, even if the non-petroleum energy source is less carbon intensive on an energy equivalent basis. These changes could influence the effectiveness of low carbon fuel standards and are not precluded by the light-duty vehicle GHG emissions standards, which regulate tailpipe but not fuel production emissions.

The carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change ('carbon balance reversal'). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies.

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979–2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons.

A period of elevated surface concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM) in the UK in spring 2014 was widely associated in the UK media with a Saharan dust plume. This might have led to over-emphasis on a natural phenomenon and consequently to a missed opportunity to inform the public and provide robust evidence for policy-makers about the observed characteristics and causes of this pollution event. In this work, the EMEP4UK regional atmospheric chemistry transport model (ACTM) was used in conjunction with speciated PM measurements to investigate the sources and long-range transport (including vertical) processes contributing to the chemical components of the elevated surface PM. It is shown that the elevated PM during this period was mainly driven by ammonium nitrate, much of which was derived from emissions outside the UK. In the early part of the episode, Saharan dust remained aloft above the UK; we show that a significant contribution of Saharan dust at surface level was restricted only to the latter part of the elevated PM period and to a relatively small geographic area in the southern part of the UK. The analyses presented in this paper illustrate the capability of advanced ACTMs, corroborated with chemically-speciated measurements, to identify the underlying causes of complex PM air pollution episodes. Specifically, the analyses highlight the substantial contribution of secondary inorganic ammonium nitrate PM, with agricultural ammonia emissions in continental Europe presenting a major driver. The findings suggest that more emphasis on reducing emissions in Europe would have marked benefits in reducing episodic PM_2.5 concentrations in the UK.

Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures.

The interactions between a range of large-scale climate oscillations and their quantitative links with precipitation are basic prerequisites to understand the hydrologic cycle. Restricted by the current limited knowledge on underlying mechanisms, statistical methods (e.g. correlation methods) are often used rather than a physical-based model. However, available correlation methods generally fail to explain the interactions among a wide range of climate oscillations and associated effects on the water cycle. This study presents a new probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation. We applied this method to identify the complex connections between climate patterns (westerly circulation (WEC), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) and seasonal precipitation over a typical endorheic region, the Tarim River Basin in central Asia. Results show that the interactions among multiple climate oscillations are non-uniform in most seasons and phases. Certain joint extreme phases can significantly trigger extremes (flood and drought) owing to the amplification effect among climate oscillations. We further find that the connection is mainly due to the complex effects of climatic and topographical factors.

We compare life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from several light-duty passenger gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) across US counties by accounting for regional differences due to marginal grid mix, ambient temperature, patterns of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and driving conditions (city versus highway). We find that PEVs can have larger or smaller carbon footprints than gasoline vehicles, depending on these regional factors and the specific vehicle models being compared. The Nissan Leaf battery electric vehicle has a smaller carbon footprint than the most efficient gasoline vehicle (the Toyota Prius) in the urban counties of California, Texas and Florida, whereas the Prius has a smaller carbon footprint in the Midwest and the South. The Leaf is lower emitting than the Mazda 3 conventional gasoline vehicle in most urban counties, but the Mazda 3 is lower emitting in rural Midwest counties. The Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid electric vehicle has a larger carbon footprint than the Prius throughout the continental US, though the Volt has a smaller carbon footprint than the Mazda 3 in many urban counties. Regional grid mix, temperature, driving conditions, and vehicle model all have substantial implications for identifying which technology has the lowest carbon footprint, whereas regional patterns of VMT have a much smaller effect. Given the variation in relative GHG implications, it is unlikely that blunt policy instruments that favor specific technology categories can ensure emission reductions universally.

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950–2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.

Despite the on-going global warming, recent winters in Eurasian mid-latitudes were much colder than average. In an attempt to better understand the physical characteristics for cold Eurasian winters, major sources of variability in surface air temperature (SAT) are investigated based on cyclostationary EOF analysis. The two leading modes of SAT variability represent the effect of Arctic amplification (AA) and the Arctic oscillation (AO), respectively. These two modes are distinct in terms of the physical characteristics, including surface energy fluxes and tropospheric circulations, and result in significantly different winter SAT patterns over the Eurasian continent. The AA-related SAT anomalies are dipolar with warm Arctic, centered at the Barents–Kara Seas, and cold East Asia. In contrast, the negative AO-related SAT anomalies are characterized by widespread cold anomalies in Northern Eurasia. Relative importance of the AA and the negative AO contributions to cold Eurasian winters is sensitive to the region of interest.

Sharp rises in the atmospheric abundance of ethane (C₂H₆) have been detected from 2009 onwards in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of the unprecedented growth in the exploitation of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs in North America. Using time series of C₂H₆ total columns derived from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations made at five selected Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change sites, we characterize the recent C₂H₆ evolution and determine growth rates of ∼5% yr⁻¹ at mid-latitudes and of ∼3% yr⁻¹ at remote sites. Results from CAM-chem simulations with the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants, Phase II bottom-up inventory for anthropogenic emissions are found to greatly underestimate the current C₂H₆ abundances. Doubling global emissions is required to reconcile the simulations and the observations prior to 2009. We further estimate that North American anthropogenic C₂H₆ emissions have increased from 1.6 Tg yr⁻¹ in 2008 to 2.8 Tg yr⁻¹ in 2014, i.e. by 75% over these six years. We also completed a second simulation with new top-down emissions of C₂H₆ from North American oil and gas activities, biofuel consumption and biomass burning, inferred from space-borne observations of methane (CH₄) from Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite. In this simulation, GEOS-Chem is able to reproduce FTIR measurements at the mid-latitudinal sites, underscoring the impact of the North American oil and gas development on the current C₂H₆ abundance. Finally we estimate that the North American oil and gas emissions of CH₄, a major greenhouse gas, grew from 20 to 35 Tg yr⁻¹ over the period 2008–2014, in association with the recent C₂H₆ rise.

We project that within the next two decades, half of the world's population will regularly (every second summer on average) experience regional summer mean temperatures that exceed those of the historically hottest summer, even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions pathway. This frequency threshold for hot temperatures over land, which have adverse effects on human health, society and economy, might be broached in little more than a decade under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. These hot summer frequency projections are based on adjusted RCP4.5 and 8.5 temperature projections, where the adjustments are performed with scaling factors determined by regularized optimal fingerprinting analyzes that compare historical model simulations with observations over the period 1950–2012. A temperature reconstruction technique is then used to simulate a multitude of possible past and future temperature evolutions, from which the probability of a hot summer is determined for each region, with a hot summer being defined as the historically warmest summer on record in that region. Probabilities with and without external forcing show that hot summers are now about ten times more likely (fraction of attributable risk 0.9) in many regions of the world than they would have been in the absence of past greenhouse gas increases. The adjusted future projections suggest that the Mediterranean, Sahara, large parts of Asia and the Western US and Canada will be among the first regions for which hot summers will become the norm (i.e. occur on average every other year), and that this will occur within the next 1–2 decades.

River discharge variations play a pivotal role in global water and biogeochemical cycles and can impact the world's agro-economics. Here, variations associated with the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific types of El Niño are contrasted for thirty of the world's largest rivers. Maps are constructed to identify the rivers that produce opposite-sign (i.e., asymmetric response (AR)) or same-sign (i.e., symmetric response (SR)) variations to these two types of El Niño. The mapping shows that the strongest AR occurs in North American rivers whereas the strongest SR occurs in the Murray River in Eastern Australia and the Danube River in Central Europe. Rivers in Asia and Africa vary in their response patterns depending on the phase (developing, mature or decaying) of El Niño. The response patterns are linked to precipitation variations within the river basins. The mapping presented offers an overview of which rivers may need new projection techniques and management strategies in response to the changes in El Niño type during recent decades.

Many previous studies have shown that a solar forcing must be greater than a CO₂ forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change but a process-based mechanistic explanation is lacking in the literature. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the lower efficacy of solar forcing compared to an equivalent CO₂ forcing. Radiative forcing is estimated using the Gregory method that regresses top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux against the change in global mean surface temperature. For a 2.25% increase in solar irradiance that produces the same long term global mean warming as a doubling of CO₂ concentration, we estimate that the efficacy of solar forcing is ∼80% relative to CO₂ forcing in the NCAR CAM5 climate model. We find that the fast tropospheric cloud adjustments especially over land and stratospheric warming in the first four months cause the slope of the regression between the TOA net radiative fluxes and surface temperature to be steeper in the solar forcing case. This steeper slope indicates a stronger net negative feedback and hence correspondingly a larger solar forcing than CO₂ forcing for the same equilibrium surface warming. Evidence is provided that rapid land surface warming in the first four months sets up a land-sea contrast that markedly affects radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter over this period. We also confirm the robustness of our results using simulations from the Hadley Centre climate model. Our study has important implications for estimating the magnitude of climate change caused by volcanic eruptions, solar geoengineering and past climate changes caused by change in solar irradiance such as Maunder minimum.

Kerosene subsidy reform is a key policy concern in India and other developing countries. As kerosene is widely used for lighting in India, any price change will likely have considerable public welfare impacts on the large fraction of the poor who do not have access to reliable electricity supply for lighting. In this study, we assess historic kerosene use for residential lighting across population groups separated by urban/rural, expenditure, and electricity service levels using data from India. Consumption trends are used to inform a service demand model and evaluate how changes in fuel price, electricity connection, and supply reliability influence environmental, health and economic outcomes. We find that users relying on kerosene for supplemental lighting—in combination ('stacked') with electricity—accounted for 64% of residential kerosene consumed for lighting in 2005. Tested scenarios that addressed service needs of supplemental users had the greatest welfare benefits, especially in the future. Scenarios reducing PM_2.5 emissions from kerosene lighting can avert between 50 and 300 thousand disability adjusted life years relative to a baseline scenario in 2030. Lighting kerosene is highly price sensitive, resulting in a drop in demand of 97% in a scenario in which current subsidies are phased out by 2030. Deadweight loss of the subsidy in 2005 is estimated at $200–950 million, with three quarters attributable to supplemental kerosene lighting. Support for cleaner lighting technologies not reliant on fossil fuel subsidies would appear to be 'no regrets' or 'co-benefits' options for India, and could be implemented in parallel with subsidy removal.

In snow-dominated mountain regions, a warming climate is expected to alter two drivers of hydrology: (1) decrease the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; and (2) increase surface energy available to drive evapotranspiration. This study uses a novel integrated modeling approach to explicitly separate energy budget increases via warming from precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain in two mountain headwaters transects of the central Rocky Mountains. Both phase transitions and energy increases had significant, though unique, impacts on semi-arid mountain hydrology in our simulations. A complete shift in precipitation from snow to rain reduced streamflow between 11% and 18%, while 4 °C of uniform warming reduced streamflow between 19% and 23%, suggesting that changes in energy-driven evaporative loss, between 27% and 29% for these uniform warming scenarios, may be the dominant driver of annual mean streamflow in a warming climate. Phase changes induced a flashier system, making water availability more susceptible to precipitation variability and eliminating the runoff signature characteristic of snowmelt-dominated systems. The impact of a phase change on mean streamflow was reduced as aridity increased from west to east of the continental divide.

We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F_NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was −32 ± 84 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmospheric carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F_NEE = −90 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F_NEE = +17 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F_ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. These measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.

Understanding the relationships and tradeoffs among management outcomes in forest commons has assumed new weight in the context of parallels between the objectives of community forest management and those of reduced emissions for deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs to reduce carbon emissions while supporting local livelihoods. We examine the association between biophysical, demographic, institutional and socio-economic variables and three distinct forest management outcomes of interest to both community forestry and REDD+ advocates—carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and livelihood benefits—in 56 forest commons in Nepal. REDD+ programs aim foremost to increase forest carbon storage and sequestration, but also seek to improve forest biodiversity, and to contribute to local livelihood benefits. The success of REDD+ programs can therefore be defined by improvements in one or more of these dimensions, while satisfying the principle of 'do no harm' in the others. We find that each outcome is associated with a different set of independent variables. This suggests that there is a need for policy-makers to clearly define their desired outcomes and to target their interventions accordingly. Our research points to the complex ways in which different factors relate to forest outcomes and has implications for the large number of cases where REDD+ projects are being implemented in the context of community forestry.

Recurrent drought and associated heatwave episodes are important features of the US climate. Many studies have examined the connection between ocean surface temperature changes and conterminous US droughts. However, remote effects of large-scale land surface temperature variability, over shorter but still considerable distances, on US regional droughts have been largely ignored. The present study combines two types of evidence to address these effects: climate observations and model simulations. Our analysis of observational data shows that springtime land temperature in northwest US is significantly correlated with summer rainfall and surface temperature changes in the US Southern Plains and its adjacent areas. Our model simulations of the 2011 Southern Plains drought using a general circulation model and a regional climate model confirm the observed relationship between land temperature anomaly and drought, and suggest that the long-distance effect of land temperature changes in the northwest US on Southern Plains droughts is probably as large as the more familiar effects of ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability. We conclude that the cool 2011 springtime climate conditions in the northwest US increased the probability of summer drought and abnormal heat in the Southern Plains. The present study suggests a strong potential for more skillful intra-seasonal predictions of US Southern Plains droughts when such facts as ones presented here are considered.

Across the tropics, rural farmers and livestock keepers use mobility as an adaptive livelihood strategy. Continued migration to and within frontier areas is widely viewed as a driver of environmental decline and biodiversity loss. Recent scholarship advances our understanding of migration decision-making in the context of changing climate and environments, and in doing so it highlights the variation in migration responses to primarily economic and environmental factors. Building on these insights, this letter investigates past and future migration decisions in a frontier landscape of Tanzania, East Africa. Combining field observations and household data within a multilevel modeling framework, the letter analyzes the explicit importance of social factors relative to economic and environmental factors in driving decisions to migrate or remain. Results indeed suggest that local community ties and non-local social networks drive both immobility and anticipated migration, respectively. In addition, positive interactions with local protected natural resource areas promote longer-term residence. Findings shed new light on how frontier areas transition to human dominated landscapes. This highlights critical links between migration behavior and the conservation of biodiversity and management of natural resources, as well as how migrants evolve to become integrated into communities.

Networks of tree-ring data are commonly applied in statistical reconstruction of spatial fields of climate variables. The importance of elevation to the climatic interpretation of tree-ring networks is addressed using 281 station precipitation records, and a network of 79 tree-ring chronologies from different species and a range of elevations in the eastern Mediterranean. Cluster analysis of chronologies identifies 6 tree-ring groups, delineated principally by site elevation. Correlation analysis suggests several of the clusters are linked to homogenous elevational moisture regimes. Results imply that climate stations close to the elevations of the tree-ring sites are essential for assessing the seasonal climatic signal in tree-ring chronologies from this region. A broader implication is that the elevations of stations contributing to gridded climate networks should be considered in the design and interpretation of field reconstructions of climate from tree rings. Finally, results suggest elevation-stratified tree-ring networks as a strategy for seasonal climate reconstruction.

Mountain regions and the important ecosystem services they provide are considered to be very vulnerable to the current warming, and recent studies suggest that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Here we analysed weather records for the period 1975–2010 from the Eastern Italian Alps that show that warming occurred both at high and low elevations, but it was less pronounced at high elevations. This negative elevation–dependent trend was consistent for mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. Global radiation data measured at different elevations, surface energy fluxes measured above an alpine grassland and above a coniferous forest located at comparable elevations for nine consecutive years as well as remote sensing data (MODIS) for cloud cover and aerosol optical depth were analysed to interpret this observation. Increasing global radiation at low elevations turned out to be a potential driver of this negative elevation–dependent warming, but also contributions from land use and land cover changes at high elevations (abandonment of alpine pastures, expansion of secondary forest succession) were taken into account. We emphasise though, that a negative elevation–dependent warming is not universal and that future research and in particular models should not neglect the role of land use changes when determining warming rates over elevation.

For climate models to simulate the continental energy storage of the Earth's energy budget they must capture the processes that partition energy across the land-atmosphere boundary. We evaluate herein the thermal consequences of these processes as simulated by models in the third phase of the paleoclimate modelling intercomparison project and the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (PMIP3/CMIP5). We examine air and ground temperature tracking at decadal and centennial time-scales within PMIP3 last-millennium simulations concatenated to historical simulations from the CMIP5 archive. We find a strong coupling between air and ground temperatures during the summer from 850 to 2005 CE. During the winter, the insulating effect of snow and latent heat exchanges produce a decoupling between the two temperatures in the northern high latitudes. Additionally, we use the simulated ground surface temperatures as an upper boundary condition to drive a one-dimensional conductive model in order to derive synthetic temperature-depth profiles for each PMIP3/CMIP5 simulation. Inversion of these subsurface profiles yields temperature trends that retain the low-frequency variations in surface air temperatures over the last millennium for all the PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations regardless of the presence of seasonal decoupling in the simulations. These results demonstrate the robustness of surface temperature reconstructions from terrestrial borehole data and their interpretation as indicators of past surface air temperature trends and continental energy storage.

Cannabis agriculture is a multi-billion dollar industry in the United States that is changing rapidly with policy liberalization. Anecdotal observations fuel speculation about associated environmental impacts, and there is an urgent need for systematic empirical research. An example from Humboldt County California, a principal cannabis-producing region, involved digitizing 4428 grow sites in 60 watersheds with Google Earth imagery. Grows were clustered, suggesting disproportionate impacts in ecologically important locales. Sixty-eight percent of grows were >500 m from developed roads, suggesting risk of landscape fragmentation. Twenty-two percent were on steep slopes, suggesting risk of erosion, sedimentation, and landslides. Five percent were <100 m from threatened fish habitat, and the estimated 297 954 plants would consume an estimated 700 000 m³ of water, suggesting risk of stream impacts. The extent and magnitude of cannabis agriculture documented in our study demands that it be regulated and researched on par with conventional agriculture.

The global drive to produce low-carbon energy has resulted in an unprecedented deployment of onshore wind turbines, representing a significant land use change for wind energy generation with uncertain consequences for local climatic conditions and the regulation of ecosystem processes. Here, we present high-resolution data from a wind farm collected during operational and idle periods that shows the wind farm affected several measures of ground-level climate. Specifically, we discovered that operational wind turbines raised air temperature by 0.18 °C and absolute humidity (AH) by 0.03 g m⁻³ during the night, and increased the variability in air, surface and soil temperature throughout the diurnal cycle. Further, the microclimatic influence of turbines on air temperature and AH decreased logarithmically with distance from the nearest turbine. These effects on ground-level microclimate, including soil temperature, have uncertain implications for biogeochemical processes and ecosystem carbon cycling, including soil carbon stocks. Consequently, understanding needs to be improved to determine the overall carbon balance of wind energy.

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48% of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI—burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems may act as a positive feedback to climate warming, the strength of which depends on its spatial extent. Recent studies have shown that shrub expansion is more likely to occur in areas with high soil moisture and nutrient availability, conditions typically found in sub-surface water channels known as water tracks. Water tracks are 5–15 m wide channels of subsurface water drainage in permafrost landscapes and are characterized by deeper seasonal thaw depth, warmer soil temperatures, and higher soil moisture and nutrient content relative to adjacent tundra. Consequently, enhanced vegetation productivity, and dominance by tall deciduous shrubs, are typical in water tracks. Quantifying the distribution of water tracks may inform investigations of the extent of shrub expansion and associated impacts on tundra ecosystem carbon cycling. Here, we quantify the distribution of water tracks and their contribution to growing season CO₂ dynamics for a Siberian tundra landscape using satellite observations, meteorological data, and field measurements. We find that water tracks occupy 7.4% of the 448 km² study area, and account for a slightly larger proportion of growing season carbon uptake relative to surrounding tundra. For areas inside water tracks dominated by shrubs, field observations revealed higher shrub biomass and higher ecosystem respiration and gross primary productivity relative to adjacent upland tundra. Conversely, a comparison of graminoid-dominated areas in water tracks and inter-track tundra revealed that water track locations dominated by graminoids had lower shrub biomass yet increased net uptake of CO₂. Our results show water tracks are an important component of this landscape. Their distribution will influence ecosystem structural and functional responses to climate, and is therefore of importance for modeling.

Multi-stakeholder roundtables offering certification programs are promising voluntary governance mechanisms to address sustainability issues associated with international agricultural supply chains. Yet, little is known about whether roundtable certifications confer additionality, the benefits of certification beyond what would be expected from policies and practices currently in place. Here, we examine the potential additionality of the Round table on Responsible Soybeans (RTRS) and the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) in mitigating conversion of native vegetation to cropland. We develop a metric of additionality based on business as usual land cover change dynamics and roundtable standard stringency relative to existing policies. We apply this metric to all countries with RTRS (n = 8) and RSPO (n = 12) certified production in 2013–2014, as well as countries that have no certified production but are among the top ten global producers in terms of soy (n = 2) and oil palm (n = 2). We find RSPO and RTRS both have substantially higher levels of stringency than existing national policies except in Brazil and Uruguay. In regions where these certification standards are adopted, the mean estimated rate of tree cover conversion to the target crop is similar for both standards. RTRS has higher mean relative stringency than the RSPO, yet RSPO countries have slightly higher enforcement levels. Therefore, mean potential additionality of RTRS and RSPO is similar across regions. Notably, countries with the highest levels of additionality have some adoption. However, with extremely low adoption rates (0.41% of 2014 global harvested area), RTRS likely has lower impact than RSPO (14%). Like most certification programs, neither roundtable is effectively targeting smallholder producers. To improve natural ecosystem protection, roundtables could target adoption to regions with low levels of environmental governance and high rates of forest-to-cropland conversion.

Climate impact on landslide occurrence and spatial patterns were analyzed within the larch-dominant communities associated with continuous permafrost areas of central Siberia. We used high resolution satellite imagery (i.e. QuickBird, WorldView) to identify landslide scars over an area of 62 000 km². Landslide occurrence was analyzed with respect to climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, drought index SPEI), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite derived equivalent of water thickness anomalies (EWTA). Landslides were found only on southward facing slopes, and the occurrence of landslides increased exponentially with increasing slope steepness. Lengths of landslides correlated positively with slope steepness. The observed upper elevation limit of landslides tended to coincide with the tree line. Observations revealed landslides occurrence was also found to be strongly correlated with August precipitation (r = 0.81) and drought index (r = 0.7), with June–July–August soil water anomalies (i.e., EWTA, r = 0.68–0.7), and number of thawing days (i.e., a number of days with t_max > 0 °C; r = 0.67). A significant increase in the variance of soil water anomalies was observed, indicating that occurrence of landslides may increase even with a stable mean precipitation level. The key-findings of this study are (1) landslides occurrence increased within the permafrost zone of central Siberia in the beginning of the 21st century; (2) the main cause of increased landslides occurrence are extremes in precipitation and soil water anomalies; and (3) landslides occurrence are strongly dependent on relief features such as southward facing steep slopes.

Lightning-caused wildfires account for a majority of burned area across the western United States (US), yet lightning remains among the more unpredictable spatiotemporal aspects of the fire environment and a challenge for both modeling and managing fire activity. A data synthesis of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, climate and fire data across the western US from 1992 to 2013 was conducted to better understand geographic variability in lightning-caused wildfire and the factors that influence interannual variability in lightning-caused wildfire at regional scales. Distinct geographic variability occurred in the proportion of fires and area burned attributed to lightning, with a majority of fires in the interior western US attributed to lightning. Lightning ignition efficiency was highest across the western portion of the region due to the concomitance of peak lightning frequency and annual nadir in fuel moisture in mid-to-late summer. For most regions the number of total and dry lightning strikes exhibited strong interannual correlation with the number of lightning-caused fires, yet were a poor predictor of area burned at regional scales. Commonality in climate–fire relationships for regional annual area burned by lightning- versus human-ignited fires suggests climate conditions, rather than lightning activity, are the predominant control of interannual variability in area burned by lightning-caused fire across much of the western US.

Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes as a result of climate warming and more frequent disturbances. Disturbances can have particularly large effects on high-latitude ecosystems when ecosystem structure and function is controlled by strong feedbacks between soil conditions, vegetation, and ground thermal regime. In this study we investigated the impact of road construction and maintenance on vegetation structure and biomass along the Dempster Highway where it crosses the Peel Plateau in the Northwest Territories. To explore drivers of tall shrub proliferation and to quantify shrub proliferation in this region of continuous permafrost, greyscale air photos (1975) and Quickbird satellite imagery (2008) were used to map landcover change within two 0.6 km² belts next to the road and two 0.6 km² belts 500 m away from the road. Maps showing areas where: 1) tall shrubs expanded, and 2) dwarf shrub tundra resisted invasion were then used to select field sites where a suite of biophysical variables were measured. Rapid tall shrub proliferation and greater biomass adjacent to the road indicate that disturbance can facilitate vegetation change in tundra environments. Our field data also suggests that increased shrub proliferation adjacent to the road was caused by greater soil moisture. Tall shrub proliferation adjacent to the road occurred at lower elevation sites characterized by wetter soils with thicker organic layers. Areas that resisted tall shrub encroachment were located at higher elevations and had drier soils with thin organic layers. Our observations also support previous work illustrating that tall shrub expansion next to the highway promotes strong positive feedbacks to ongoing shrub growth and proliferation.

Freezing rain and freezing drizzle events represent a critical feature of many regions of the world. Even at low intensities, these events often result in natural hazards that cause damage to housing, communication lines, and other man-made infrastructure. These events usually occur near the 0 °C isotherm. In a changing climate, this isotherm will not disappear, but its position in space and time will likely change as will the geography of freezing precipitation. A larger influx of water vapor into the continents from the oceans may also increase the amount and frequency of freezing precipitation events. This paper assesses our current understanding of recent changes in freezing precipitation for the United States, Canada, Norway, and Russia. The research is part of a larger GEWEX Cross-Cut Project addressing 'cold/shoulder season precipitation near 0 °C'. Using an archive of 874 long-term time series (40 years of data) of synoptic observations for these four countries, we document the climatology of daily freezing rain and freezing drizzle occurrences as well as trends therein. The regions with the highest frequency of freezing rains (from 3 to 8 days per year) reside in the northeastern quadrant of the conterminous United States and adjacent areas of southeastern Canada south of 50 °N and over the south and southwest parts of the Great East European Plain. The frequency of freezing drizzle exceeds the frequency of freezing rain occurrence in all areas. During the past decade, the frequency of freezing rain events somewhat decreased over the southeastern US. In North America north of the Arctic Circle, it increased by about 1 day yr⁻¹. Over Norway, freezing rain occurrences increased substantially, especially in the Norwegian Arctic. In European Russia and western Siberia, the frequency of freezing rain somewhat increased (except the southernmost steppe regions and the Arctic regions) while freezing drizzle frequency decreased over entire Russia.

Understanding the causes and consequences of rapid environmental change is an essential scientific frontier, particularly given the threat of climate- and land use-induced changes in disturbance regimes. In western North America, recent widespread insect outbreaks and wildfires have sparked acute concerns about potential insect–fire interactions. Although previous research shows that insect activity typically does not increase wildfire likelihood, key uncertainties remain regarding insect effects on wildfire severity (i.e., ecological impact). Recent assessments indicate that outbreak severity and burn severity are not strongly associated, but these studies have been limited to specific insect or fire events. Here, we present a regional census of large wildfire severity following outbreaks of two prevalent bark beetle and defoliator species, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani), across the US Pacific Northwest. We first quantify insect effects on burn severity with spatial modeling at the fire event scale and then evaluate how these effects vary across the full population of insect–fire events (n = 81 spanning 1987–2011). In contrast to common assumptions of positive feedbacks, we find that insects generally reduce the severity of subsequent wildfires. Specific effects vary with insect type and timing, but both insects decrease the abundance of live vegetation susceptible to wildfire at multiple time lags. By dampening subsequent burn severity, native insects could buffer rather than exacerbate fire regime changes expected due to land use and climate change. In light of these findings, we recommend a precautionary approach when designing and implementing forest management policies intended to reduce wildfire hazard and increase resilience to global change.

Cook et al's highly influential consensus study (2013 Environ. Res. Lett.8 024024) finds different results than previous studies in the consensus literature. It omits tests for systematic differences between raters. Many abstracts are unaccounted for. The paper does not discuss the procedures used to ensure independence between the raters, to ensure that raters did not use additional information, and to ensure that later ratings were not influenced by earlier results. Clarifying these issues would further strengthen the paper, and establish it as our best estimate of the consensus.

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett.11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.