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Risks of the oil transition

A E Farrell and A R Brandt

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The energy system is in the early stages of a transition from conventionally produced oil to a variety of substitutes, bringing economic, strategic, and environmental risks. We argue that these three challenges are inherently interconnected, and that as we act to manage one we cannot avoid affecting our prospects in dealing with the others. We further argue that without appropriate policies, tradeoffs between these risks are likely to be made so as to allow increased environmental disruption in return for increased economic and energy security. Responsible solutions involve developing and deploying environmentally acceptable energy technologies (both supply and demand) rapidly enough to replace dwindling conventional oil production and meet growing demand for transportation while diversifying supply to improve energy security.


PACS

89.20.Bb Industrial and technological research and development

89.30.Aa Fossil fuels

89.60.-k Environmental studies

89.20.Kk Engineering

Subjects

Environmental and Earth science

Dates

Issue 1 (October–December 2006)

Received 4 July 2006, accepted for publication 8 September 2006

Published 30 October 2006



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