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Self-organized natural roads for predicting traffic flow: a sensitivity study

Bin Jiang, Sijian Zhao and Junjun Yin

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In this paper, we extended road-based topological analysis to both nationwide and urban road networks, and concentrated on a sensitivity study with respect to the formation of self-organized natural roads based on the Gestalt principle of good continuity. Both annual average daily traffic (AADT) and global positioning system (GPS) data were used to correlate with a series of ranking metrics including five centrality-based metrics and two PageRank metrics. It was found that there exists a tipping point from segment-based to road-based network topology in terms of correlation between ranking metrics and their traffic. To our great surprise, (1) this correlation is significantly improved if a selfish rather than utopian strategy is adopted in forming the self-organized natural roads, and (2) point-based metrics assigned by summation into individual roads tend to have a much better correlation with traffic flow than line-based metrics. These counter-intuitive surprising findings constitute emergent properties of self-organized natural roads, which are intelligent enough for predicting traffic flow, thus shedding substantial light on the understanding of road networks and their traffic from the perspective of complex networks.


Keywords

traffic models

sandpile models (experiment)

self-organized criticality (experiment)

 

E-print Number: 0804.1630

Cited: by |

Refers: to

PACS

45.70.Vn Granular models of complex systems; traffic flow

05.70.Fh Phase transitions: general studies

89.75.Hc Networks and genealogical trees

89.40.Bb Land transportation

02.40.-k Geometry, differential geometry, and topology

05.65.+b Self-organized systems

MSC

82B26 Phase transitions (general)

90B20 Traffic problems

Subjects

Mathematical physics

Environmental and Earth science

Statistical physics and nonlinear systems

Dates

Issue 07 (July 2008)

Received 16 April 2008, accepted for publication 11 June 2008

Published 9 July 2008



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