Quick search Find article
Quick search
Find article
Deutsche Physikalische Gessellschaft IOP Institute of Physics

Volatile decision dynamics: experiments, stochastic description, intermittency control and traffic optimization

Dirk Helbing1,2,3, Martin Schönhof1 and Daniel Kern1

Show affiliations


The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc, they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified methods of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.


PACS

84.40.Ua Telecommunications: signal transmission and processing; communication satellites

02.60.Pn Numerical optimization

02.50.Ey Stochastic processes

MSC

60Gxx Stochastic processes

94Axx Communication, information

Subjects

Computational physics

Electronics and devices

Dates

Issue 1 (June 2002)

Received 10 April 2002

Published 20 June 2002



  1. Volatile decision dynamics: experiments, stochastic description, intermittency control and traffic optimization

    Dirk Helbing et al 2002 New J. Phys. 4 33

  2. Photostimulated aggregation of ultradispersoidal silver particles into fractal clusters

    V V Slabko et al 1993 J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 5 7231

  3. Molecular building blocks and development strategies for molecular nanotechnology

    Ralph C Merkle 2000 Nanotechnology 11 89

  4. Spurious phase in a model for traffic on a bridge

    David W Erickson et al 2005 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 38 L659

  5. Far-from-equilibrium transport with constrained resources

    D A Adams et al J. Stat. Mech. (2008) P06009

  6. Inflating and Deflating Hot Jupiters: Coupled Tidal and Thermal Evolution of Known Transiting Planets

    N. Miller et al. 2009 ApJ 702 1413

  7. Spatial chaos of an extensible conducting rod in a uniform magnetic field

    D Sinden and G H M van der Heijden 2009 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 42 375207

  8. Recent developments in the theoretical study of phase separation in manganites and underdoped cuprates

    Elbio Dagotto et al 2008 J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 20 434224

  9. Flow visualization in science and mathematics

    Nelson Max et al 2009 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 180 012087

  10. Report on the second Mock LISA data challenge

    Stanislav Babak et al 2008 Class. Quantum Grav. 25 114037

View by subject




Export








Please login to access our web services, or create an account if you don't yet have one.

You must have cookies enabled in your web browser to be able to login.

Username
Password

Forgotten your password? Get a new one here.