Microstructurally small fatigue crack (MSFC) formation includes stages of incubation, nucleation and microstructurally small propagation. In AA 7075-T651, the fracture of Al₇Cu₂Fe constituent particles is the major incubation source. In experiments, it has been observed that only a small percentage of these Fe-bearing particles crack in a highly stressed volume. The work presented here addresses the identification of the particles prone to cracking and the prediction of particle cracking frequency, given a distribution of particles and crystallographic texture in such a volume. Three-dimensional elasto-viscoplastic finite element analyses are performed to develop a response surface for the tensile stress in the particle as a function of the strain level surrounding the particle, parent grain orientation and particle aspect ratio. A technique for estimating particle strength from fracture toughness, particle size and intrinsic flaw size is developed. Particle cracking is then determined by comparing particle stress and strength. The frequency of particle cracking is then predicted from sampling measured distributions of grain orientation, particle aspect ratio and size. Good agreement is found between the predicted frequency of particle cracking and two preliminary validation experiments. An estimate of particle cracking frequency is important for simulating the next stages of MSFC formation: inserting all particles into a microstructural model for these stages is computationally intractable and physically unnecessary.