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Mechanistically based probability modelling, life prediction and reliability assessment

REVIEW ARTICLE

Robert P Wei and D Gary Harlow

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TOPICAL REVIEW

Life prediction and reliability assessment are essential components for the life-cycle engineering and management (LCEM) of modern engineered systems. These systems can range from microelectronic and bio-medical devices to large machinery and structures. To be effective, the underlying approach to LCEM must be transformed to embody mechanistically based probability modelling, vis-à-vis the more traditional experientially based statistical modelling, for predicting damage evolution and distribution. In this paper, the probability and statistical approaches are compared and differentiated. The process of model development on the basis of mechanistic understanding derived from critical experiments is illustrated through selected examples. The efficacy of this approach is illustrated through an example of the evolution and distribution of corrosion and corrosion fatigue damage in aluminium alloys in relation to aircraft that had been in long-term service.


PACS

81.40.Cd Solid solution hardening, precipitation hardening, and dispersion hardening; aging

62.20.M- Structural failure of materials

81.40.Np Fatigue, corrosion fatigue, embrittlement, cracking, fracture, and failure

Subjects

Condensed matter: structural, mechanical & thermal

Dates

Issue 1 (January 2005)

Received 29 June 2004, in final form 4 October 2004

Published 8 December 2004



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