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Self-affirmation model for football goal distributions

E. Bittner1, A. Nußbaumer1, W. Janke1 and M. Weigel2

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Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out that in particular the tails of the distributions are not well described by independent Bernoulli trials, but rather well modeled by negative binomial or generalized extreme value distributions. To understand this behavior from first principles, we suggest to modify the Bernoulli random process to include a simple component of self-affirmation which seems to describe the data surprisingly well and allows to interpret the observed deviation from Gaussian statistics. The phenomenological distributions used before can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments and found the proposed models to be applicable rather universally. In particular, here we compare men's and women's leagues and the separate German leagues during the cold war times and find some remarkable differences.


PACS

89.20.-a Interdisciplinary applications of physics

02.50.-r Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics

Subjects

Computational physics

Dates

Issue 5 (June 2007)

Received 14 February 2007, in final form 12 April 2007

Published 16 May 2007



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