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Fast inference for statistical inverse problems

Matthew A Taddy1, Herbert K H Lee2 and Bruno Sansó2

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Computer models for the simulation of physical and environmental phenomena are often regulated by complicated dependences on unknown variables, and these unobservable inputs must be inferred from a comparison of simulator output against physical data. The standard Bayesian statistical approaches to this inference problem require fitting a complicated statistical model to the existing parameter evaluations, usually through use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. When there already exists a large bank of simulated values, it may be undesirable to develop a sophisticated statistical surrogate or to sample additional output from the computer simulator. In response to this motivation, we discuss a sampling importance resampling algorithm for Bayesian inference in inverse problems that works in conjunction with kernel density estimation to resample, from the original computer output, an approximate posterior sample for the unobservable variables of interest. Given a sufficiently large bank of computer output, our resampling method is able to provide high-quality results at a much lower cost than the standard Bayesian techniques. We present two applications where unobservable inputs are to be inferred from scarce observations and abundant simulated output. One consists of a climate simulator and the other of a groundwater flow model.


PACS

02.30.Zz Inverse problems

92.60.Ry Climatology

02.50.Ng Distribution theory and Monte Carlo studies

92.40.Kf Groundwater

02.50.Ga Markov processes

02.50.Tt Inference methods

MSC

86A22 Inverse problems (See also 35R30)

86A32 Geostatistics

62G09 Resampling methods

62F15 Bayesian inference

86A05 Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (See also 76Bxx, 76E20, 76Q05, 76Rxx, 76U05)

60Jxx Markov processes

Subjects

Mathematical physics

Computational physics

Environmental and Earth science

Dates

Issue 8 (August 2009)

Received 9 October 2008, in final form 3 June 2009

Published 24 June 2009



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