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Bayesian inference in physics: case studies

REVIEW ARTICLE

V Dose

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This report describes the Bayesian approach to probability theory with emphasis on the application to the evaluation of experimental data. A brief summary of Bayesian principles is given, with a discussion of concepts, terminology and pitfalls. The step from Bayesian principles to data processing involves major numerical efforts. We address the presently employed procedures of numerical integration, which are mainly based on the Monte Carlo method. The case studies include examples from electron spectroscopies, plasma physics, ion beam analysis and mass spectrometry. Bayesian solutions to the ubiquitous problem of spectrum restoration are presented and advantages and limitations are discussed. Parameter estimation within the Bayesian framework is shown to allow for the incorporation of expert knowledge which in turn allows the treatment of under-determined problems which are inaccessible by the traditional maximum likelihood method. A unique and extremely valuable feature of Bayesian theory is the model comparison option. Bayesian model comparison rests on Ockham's razor which limits the complexity of a model to the amount necessary to explain the data without fitting noise. Finally we deal with the treatment of inconsistent data. They arise frequently in experimental work either from incorrect estimation of the errors associated with a measurement or alternatively from distortions of the measurement signal by some unrecognized spurious source. Bayesian data analysis sometimes meets with spectacular success. However, the approach cannot do wonders, but it does result in optimal robust inferences on the basis of all available and explicitly declared information.


PACS

02.50.Cw Probability theory

02.30.Cj Measure and integration

52.70.-m Plasma diagnostic techniques and instrumentation

05.10.Ln Monte Carlo methods

MSC

65C05 Monte Carlo methods

82D10 Plasmas

60Axx Foundations of probability theory

65C50 Other computational problems in probability

82B80 Numerical methods (Monte Carlo, series resummation, etc.) (See also 65-XX, 81T80)

Subjects

Mathematical physics

Computational physics

Instrumentation and measurement

Plasma physics

Statistical physics and nonlinear systems

Dates

Issue 9 (September 2003)

Received 27 January 2003, in final form 20 March 2003

Published 11 August 2003



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