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Representing Monte Carlo output distributions for transferability in uncertainty analysis: modelling with quantile functions

R Willink

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Ideally, the output of one calculation of measurement uncertainty should be usable as an input to another calculation. This paper describes (i) how the output distribution of a Monte Carlo (MC) evaluation of uncertainty can be summarized for use in another analysis and (ii) how a general probability distribution can be summarized for efficient use as an MC input distribution. The principal technique discussed involves fitting an asymmetric form of 'lambda distribution' to the summarizing data. This distribution is defined by the inverse of its distribution function, so the generation of random samples from this distribution is straightforward.

The inverse of the distribution function is known as the 'quantile function'. The principle advocated is that of working with distributions with convenient quantile functions instead of distributions with convenient probability density functions. This principle is applicable whether the distributions represent sampling distributions, as in frequentist statistics, or patterns of belief, as in Bayesian statistics.


PACS

05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion

02.50.Ng Distribution theory and Monte Carlo studies

02.50.Cw Probability theory

Subjects

Computational physics

Statistical physics and nonlinear systems

Dates

Issue 3 (June 2009)

Received 2 September 2008, in final form 24 November 2008

Published 2 February 2009



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