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Bayesian statistics in radionuclide metrology: measurement of a decaying source

François O Bochud, Claude J Bailat and Jean-Pascal Laedermann

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The most intuitive way of defining a probability is perhaps through the frequency at which it appears when a large number of trials are realized in identical conditions. The probability derived from the obtained histogram characterizes the so-called frequentist or conventional statistical approach. In this sense, probability is defined as a physical property of the observed system. By contrast, in Bayesian statistics, a probability is not a physical property or a directly observable quantity, but a degree of belief or an element of inference. The goal of this paper is to show how Bayesian statistics can be used in radionuclide metrology and what its advantages and disadvantages are compared with conventional statistics. This is performed through the example of an yttrium-90 source typically encountered in environmental surveillance measurement. Because of the very low activity of this kind of source and the small half-life of the radionuclide, this measurement takes several days, during which the source decays significantly. Several methods are proposed to compute simultaneously the number of unstable nuclei at a given reference time, the decay constant and the background. Asymptotically, all approaches give the same result. However, Bayesian statistics produces coherent estimates and confidence intervals in a much smaller number of measurements. Apart from the conceptual understanding of statistics, the main difficulty that could deter radionuclide metrologists from using Bayesian statistics is the complexity of the computation.


PACS

06.20.Dk Measurement and error theory

29.25.Rm Sources of radioactive nuclei

06.30.-k Measurements common to several branches of physics and astronomy

Subjects

Accelerators, beams and electromagnetism

Nuclear physics

Instrumentation and measurement

Particle physics and field theory

Dates

Issue 4 (August 2007)

Received 7 March 2007

Published 2 August 2007



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