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A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF TIME SYMMETRY IN LIGHT CURVES: RECONSIDERING SCORPIUS X-1 OCCULTATIONS

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Alexander W. Blocker1, Pavlos Protopapas2,3 and Charles R. Alcock3

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We present a new approach to the analysis of time symmetry in light curves, such as those in the X-ray at the center of the Scorpius X-1 occultation debate. Our method uses a new parameterization for such events (the bilogistic event profile) and provides a clear, physically relevant characterization of each event's key features. We also demonstrate a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out this analysis, including a novel independence chain configuration for the estimation of each event's location in the light curve. These tools are applied to the Scorpius X-1 light curves presented in Chang et al., providing additional evidence based on the time series that the events detected thus far are most likely not occultations by trans-Neptunian objects.


Keywords

Kuiper Belt; methods: data analysis; methods: numerical; methods: statistical; stars: individual (Scorpius X-1)


Dates

Issue 2 (2009 August 20)

Received 2009 April 6, accepted for publication 2009 June 26

Published 2009 August 4



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